Arch Manning faces four potential career paths after struggling through the 2026 season at Texas, according to analysis from CBS Sports.
The third-year Texas quarterback, the highest-rated prospect in his 2023 signing class, has regressed significantly under coach Steve Sarkisian. Manning ranks 79th nationally in EPA per dropback after finishing 35th in that metric last season. Despite the poor performance, NFL scouts still view him as a potential first-round pick in the 2027 draft. Mike Renner placed him at No. 21 on his 2027 big board, and other draft analysts have pegged him in a similar range this month.
Option A involves Manning recovering down the stretch. If Texas finishes 5-1 to reach 9-3, the Longhorns could make the College Football Playoff on the strength of wins over Ohio State and Tennessee. Competition from backup KJ Lacey for first-team reps could generate urgency. If Manning returns to form, he could still hear his name called on Day 1 of the NFL Draft after his four-year college career.
A second option is Manning remaining at Texas for 2027 if Sarkisian makes staff changes. The coach has kept offensive coordinator Kyle Flood and quarterbacks coach A.J. Milwee despite similar failures to develop former starter Quinn Ewers, a five-star who became a seventh-round pick in 2024. That continuity may need to end for Sarkisian to retain fan support.
Manning could also transfer for his final season of eligibility. Recent examples support this path: Cam Ward transferred from Washington State to Miami and became the No. 1 overall pick in 2025; Fernando Mendoza transferred to Indiana and became the 2026 No. 1 pick; Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix transferred late in their careers and became first-round picks in 2024.
The fourth option has Manning declare for the 2027 draft despite continued struggles. With reduced expectations entering the NFL as damaged goods, he could develop in a pro system without pressure to start immediately.